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Game Time: Stabilization Wedge

Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow of Princeton University recently created “Stabilization Wedges”, a game stimulating climate change dilemma. The game makes use of two possible CO2 emissions scenarios. The first, if we continue emitting at the rate we are now, we will have emitted 175 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere by 2055 – that’s a whopping amount of 7 billion tons of C02 a year until 2055. This scenario, referred to as the emissions-doubling path, is predicted to lead to significant global warming effects by the end of this century.

The other scenario is to keep CO2 emissions levels at a standstill for the next 50 years, preventing the 7 billion tons of CO2 emitted in the atmosphere per year. After which, we work to decrease emissions for the next 50 years, keeping atmospheric carbon under 1200 billion tons. Thus enabling us to avoid the worst predicted repercussions of climate change. These carbon savings are often referred to as, the Stabilization Triangle.

“Stabilization Wedges”, takes the projected increases from the emissions-doubling path for the next 59 years, and slices this into 7 equal wedges. The object of the game is to do away with all the wedges using available technologies today which can be applied to one or more sectors: electricity Production, heating and direct fuel use, transportation, and biostorage. Namely, these technologies are: increased transport efficiency, reducing miles traveled, increased heating efficiency, increased efficiency of electricity production, fuel switching (coal to gas), fossil-based electricity with carbon capture & storage (CCS), coal synfuels with CCS, fossil-based hydrogen fuel with CCS, nuclear electricity, wind-generated electricity, solar electricity, wind-generated hydrogen, biofuels, forest storage, and soil storage.

The goal of the game is to refute conventional wisdom that only revolutionary new technologies, such as nuclear fusion, can lead to large emissions cuts. These are based on studies conducted by Socolow and Pacala, together with Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) Scientists’, on the portfolio of the 15 existing technologies. Their findings show, that these technologies taken to a grand scale, can lead to the much needed large emissions cuts.

A good conclusion enough, but why wait the latter half of the century to reduce emissions? Even at today’s levels, CO2 emissions are not sustainable, and we will still feel the effects of climate change. How about diminishing C02 emissions to 70% - 80%, at a rate of 1.5% a year through the combination of existing and revolutionary technologies?

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Posted by Sean on 07/20